Breaking Down My PGA Scorecard — How I’m Approaching the Second Major of 2025
After how much fun I had building out the Masters Scorecard last month, I knew I wanted to run it back for the PGA Championship, but not quite the same.
Some of the structure is the same. Some things I tweaked. But the goal’s still simple: use stats to figure out who’s trending, who fits the course, and who’s got a real shot at winning this week. or maybe not at all.
First up: The Course
This year’s PGA is at Quail Hollow: a long, demanding layout that rewards power, precision, and major-level patience. It’s not a place where you can fake four rounds. You need a well-rounded game and the ability to stay sharp under pressure.
That’s where the PGA Scorecard comes in.
The Setup
Here’s the breakdown:
- I started by pulling the average strokes gained numbers for the last 3 PGA Champions — Off the Tee, Approach, Around the Green, Putting, Tee to Green, and Total.
- Then I went through every PGA Championship round from the last 3 years.
- If a player beat the “Winner’s Benchmark” in a specific category during a round, they got 1 point.
- I applied the same logic to every round of the 2025 season so far — only this time, players earn ½ point for beating the benchmark in a category.
All of that adds up to the PGA Scorecard Score, a way to blend proven PGA performance with current-season form in a way that’s hopefully meaningful.
Bonus: Major Pedigree Score
This is new for the PGA, and something I’ve wanted to build for a while.
I pulled each player’s round-by-round performance in all majors since 2021, and scored them based on how often they’ve gained strokes relative to past PGA winners.
It’s basically a test of major reliability. Not just who plays well during a regular week, but who actually shows up when the pressure’s highest.
Some names move way up once you factor in Major Pedigree, and some fall off a bit.
What’s Next
I’ll be posting leaderboards, model insights, and quick hits throughout the week.
Full PGA Scorecard Rankings drop tomorrow — and I’ve already got a few players circled, as well as some of my personal favorite stories going into the week.
Let’s go.