Alright, time to get into it.
As much as I’m diving into data this week, the fan in me can’t help but root for Jordan Spieth. The career grand slam is right there. If Rory can finally finish his, why not Jordan? He’s had the shots, the Sunday charges, the heartbreak… maybe this is the year it all lines up.
Now, speaking of guys who have it all lined up…
Scottie. Is. Back.
No surprise here: Scottie Scheffler is the heavy favorite coming into the week. And after seeing him in person at the Byron Nelson, I can confirm — he’s locked in. He was in full control tee to green, and when the putter behaves, it’s almost unfair. He’s No. 1 in my PGA Scorecard, and the world, for a reason.
But enough about the obvious guys.
Let’s talk about a few names that popped up in my model, and made me do a double take.
Three Sneaky Names I Can’t Ignore
Stephen Jaeger, Sami Valimaki, and Niklas Hojgaard.
None of them jump off the page in terms of PGA history… and their raw PGA Scorecard numbers are low because of it. But their 2025 strokes gained data has been quietly excellent. They’ve played their way into the top 10 of my projections, and sometimes, that’s all it takes at a course like Quail Hollow. Keep an eye.
Jake Knapp = Birdie Machine
This guy is fascinating. His Birdie or Better Score (which I track as part of my scoring volatility metric) is strong enough to catch some buzz. If he finds any rhythm off the tee, I think he’s one breakout round away from being in the mix.
Shane Lowry — Always Lurking
And then there’s Shane Lowry — who’s basically been on the edge of contention in every big event this year. I don’t think many are talking about him, but his Major Pedigree Score is solid, and Quail Hollow suits his style. If the short game travels, don’t be surprised if he makes a move this weekend.
Leaderboard drops tomorrow. Let’s see who starts fast, who’s climbing the Scorecard, and how fall flat.