We’ve broken down the methodology, the score is in the books… now it’s time to talk results. Who’s hot, who’s not, and who’s sneaky enough to shake things up come Sunday.
Lets take a quick look at what the numbers tell us, we have 19 Top Tier golfers, 47 Mid-Tier Guys, and 19 On the Fringe Low Tier Guys.
This is where the numbers meet the narratives — and honestly, this is the fun part.
Top Tier: The Studs You’d Expect (Mostly)
Let’s not act surprised — Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Ludvig Åberg top my Masters Score. If anyone else showed up in those top three spots, I’d start questioning my own formulas.
- Scottie Scheffler is dominating the strokes gained category, particularly at Augusta. Nearly 70% of his total score comes from that one category — wild. But here’s the rub: his Field Composition Score is low, which reflects some uncertainty about his current form. Is he fully back from the injury? Augusta is as good a place as any to prove it.
- Rory McIlroy — this is the best we’ve seen him play leading into a Masters. 41% of his score is made up of 2025 performance, which is the highest among all players. If it doesn’t happen this year, I really don’t know when (or if) it will.
- Thomas Detry & Stephen Jaeger are two names I would not have had in my top tier, but we’re going to let the numbers speak here.
- Ludvig Åberg has the total score to be a top-tier threat, but here comes my first bold prediction of the week:
💥 Ludvig misses the cut.
His opening round numbers this season (and at Augusta last year) are rough. If he can’t start hot, I don’t think he makes the weekend.
❌ High-Tier Misses (Based on Round-by-Round Data)
I’ve got Justin Thomas projected to miss the cut. Yep. Based on his round-by-round form, he just doesn’t have the momentum. It’s one of those calls the model makes that you hope isn’t true — but the numbers don’t lie.
And then there’s Xander Schauffele, sitting squarely in the Mid-Tier and also projected to miss the cut. Always solid, but the data this year just hasn’t lined up.
Spieth Watch: #HookEm Forever
Look, I’ll admit it — I’m a Jordan Spieth lifer. The Spieth Coaster is still my favorite ride on Tour. Based on this model, he finds himself in the Top Tier again, thanks mostly to one thing: birdie streaks.
Over 20% of his total score comes from the Birdie Score — no one runs hotter when he’s on. But the question is always the same: Can he avoid the big numbers? We’ll be watching every swing like it’s a soap opera.
First-Timers & Sneaky Threats
- Joe Highsmith and Maverick McNealy are both playing their first Masters — and they nearly cracked the Top Tier. Based on their scores, they’re just on the edge of Mid-Tier status.
Bold call? McNealy is in the hunt come Sunday.
- Corey Conners is sneaky good at Augusta. His Field Composition Score is strong (3) and his Masters track record is solid. He shows up in my predicted Top 5 and honestly, I’d love to see it.
LIV on the Fringe
Most of my lowest-ranked players are LIV guys. That’s not a dig — it’s just the math. My model heavily weights 2025 stats, and… well, there’s just not much to go on for LIV players. If one of them does win? The unification talk is going to get loud.
🏆 My Top 10 Masters Scorecard
Let’s end with the big reveal. According to the full Pin Seeker Analytics breakdown, here’s who comes out on top:
- Rory McIlroy
- Collin Morikawa
- Maverick McNealy
- Robert MacIntyre
- Corey Conners
- Michael Kim
- Min Woo Lee
- Aaron Rai
- Scottie Scheffler
- Russell Henley
📝 Notable Miss: Joe Highsmith — just misses the Top 10, but don’t be surprised if he turns heads.
Tomorrow: Round 1 Reactions + What the Score Says Now
The fun part about golf? It changes fast. After Round 1, we’ll plug in the data and see how it shifts the tiers and scorecard. Some guys will surge, others will tumble, and I’ll be here to break it all down.
Let’s enjoy the walk.